Swing States

Why are these the Swing States?

• Although Trump made gains in states like New Mexico, Virginia, and New Jersey, his approval rating of around 41% has not benefited Vance. These states will most likely see similar margins to those in the 2024 election. However, the upcoming gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey could still shift them to the right in 2028—similar to how Governor DeSantis transformed Florida from a swing state into a solidly Republican one.

• Arizona shifted notably to the right in 2024, making states that were previously considered likely Democratic even more competitive than the so-called "swing state" of Arizona. With Republicans continuing to win over many Hispanic voters, Arizona is likely to produce similar results again.

• New Hampshire has consistently been a state of close races, and that trend does not appear to be changing anytime soon. Kamala Harris won the state by just 2.8%—2.7 points tighter than Trump's margin in “swing state” Arizona.

• The rest of the battleground states are truly up for grabs. These have been must-win territories since the 2016 election. The most crucial among them are the WIMPA states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), which have been the key to the presidency from 2016 to 2024. Given Republicans' stronger prospects in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, Democrats must sweep all three WIMPA states to win the presidency, while Republicans need to carry only one.